The new site and blog are now live at www.fxww.com and www.fxww.com/blog so if would kindly start using this new address. I will keep the Dreamhosters site open, hopefully with a redirect, for a few days as knowing me, I will surely stuff something up technically
On the 24th of July 2012 the USD index got to 84.10 and last night it topped out at 84.09. Looks like we might get a short period of consolidation before the bulls take over again and my mate Jim over at FX Charts reckons that the weekly 86.00 trendline is the real target.
Not a lot of interest in the FX market this morning according to dealers at the coalface of the interbank market but there are some very tight trailing stops now above 1.2895 in the EUR/USD (mainly from leveraged types) which will probably be targeted in the next few hours.
You can click through here and read my full opening commentary on FX Street.
Kyle’s excellent technical analysis report has now been updated in the members section. If you don’t have a login let me know and I’ll email you one.
Personally I think its much more likely that the prolonged range trading continues around 1.3000 but if the bears can break and hold below 1.2750 then we might indeed see a trend renewal. The shorter term charts show decent resistance near 1.2935/50 so I would play the edges of this range for now.
Weekly trendline support at 0.9870 is providing support and there are solid bids reported near .9850. The downtrend remains very strong and the bears seem unable to reclaim .9920. I covered some shorts overnight at .9870 but if the bulls cannot get back above .9920 then I will re-instate. There is still talk of topside [...]
Something about this AUD/USD move has me feeling a bit uneasy and I’ve bought some here at .9870 to cover my short AUD exposure. My previous core positions were long EUR/AUD and long USD/CHF so basically I’m now left with a EUR/CHF position which is a pretty safe one in the current environment.
Yesterday I thought that this pair was about to break higher and follow other EUR crosses but it seems unable to sustain any sort of momentum so I’m thinking its best left alone. Better trades elsewhere.
Looks like we should get a test of China’s big dnt at 104.00 sooner rather than later. After opening above prior 102.00 resistance the short term technical outlook looks bullish.